The first premise states that the theory, or the explanation, really does enable you to predict the facts, or the observable outcome. WebThe explanatory hypothesis is the heart of the case formulation. Webe. WebTranscribed image text: www.bbt.com Our Time.com Cesearch Foundations, Process, and Ethics Savod Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? But how can the mere belief that one is doomed be fatal? a. Who was the first person referred to as a psychologist? Lack noticed that on an island shared by two species of finches, ones beak was markedly smaller than the others. Sample exercise. If the prior probability of the outcome is high, then we expect the outcome to happen anywayeven if the hypothesis is false. Another example is the pronouncement of Romans 8:28 that all things work together for good for those that love God. Some Christians will take any outcome at all to be, in some sense or other, good and thus to be evidence for the truth of this saying. Life is organized on many levels within individual organisms, including atoms, cells, tissues, and organs. Populations have the capacity to change over time. Firefighters doused the flaming Molotov cocktail and then detained the man . An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. For example, our hypothesis in this case could be that the toast didn't toast because the electrical outlet is broken. And, though you may not find the ifthen premise, there are two things you can always expect to find if the argument is explanatory: reference to the explanation, often with a discussion of why it is better than alternative explanations; and reference to the observable outcome, often with a discussion of how unlikely that outcome would otherwise Punishment motivates learning better than does reward.. For general explanations, a good way to check for simplicity is to ask. Treatment: in a research study, any condition applied to subjects - those in the treatment group - that is not applied to subjects in a control group. To put it more generally, to say that an explanation or an outcome is unfalsifiable is to say that any observation at all is consistent with the explanation. It makes no statement with respect to causation. The only difference is that Geller claims that he is not using deception. c. athletes have higher moral development than nonathletes Galileo, Torricellis contemporary, attempted to test this by carrying a crude barometer to the top of a tall building, but the difference in the barometric reading between the base and the top of the building was negligible. d. a and c Ban alcoholic beverages at sporting events. WebWhich of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? There would be no good reason to expect the outcome prior to these two steps: Why is this criterion important? Most aggression in sport falls in which of the following categories? c. with the intent to harm psychologically. Note: See Section 6. Another good way to check for an improbable outcome is to ask this: Does another explanation for this outcome already exist? C. It's correlated, but not causal. I presume: 1. Included among your background evidence may be a belief that already serves as a perfectly good explanation for the outcomein which case, you would expect the outcome anyway. Researchers found that during a three-year period, the percentage of tickets, compared to simple warnings, was considerably higher during the night shift: more than 71 percent of the drivers stopped at night got tickets, compared with 58 percent of those stopped during the day (the others got warnings). Both the premise and the conclusion of an inductive generalization are concerned with the same subject matter. Empirical knowledge is knowledge that is based on experience and observation. D. It excludes the presumption of causation. Which of the following is an example of an objective measure used by functionalists? A house fire victim, for example, is quoted in the newspaper as explaining, I kept smelling something, and then I saw the smoke. The plumber explanation is burdened with improbabilities: The answer in each case is very infrequently. Look for coincidence as an alternative explanation. Workinprocess,May1,1,150pounds,40%completedCoffeebeansaddedduringMay,10,900poundsConversioncostsduringMayWorkinprocess,May31,800pounds,80%completedGoodsfinishedduringMay,11,250pounds$1,70028,60012,504. I subconsciously wanted the test to succeed, so I tended not to count less severe colds that I otherwise would have counted. So an argument of this sort is probably just a logical mistake, not an explanatory argument. I was being more careful about my health because I was engaged in the experiment. WebSchedule 1 - Dictionary . Any performance significantly better or worse than the students current mean level of competence would be largely a matter of chance. Partly because this revised outcome would be false, it has not been offered; so the argument is handicapped by an outcome that leaves the luck alternative still standing. For any explanation you can ask whether it makes sensethat is, whether there is an adequate conceptual framework to account for the causal mechanisms required by the explanation. Believe. She must be a good driver, since she usually gets where shes going without running into anybody. Which Shakespearean sonnet is the most beautiful? Bandura's research showed that children who saw adult models commit violent acts repeated those acts more than children who were not exposed to such aggressive models. General explanations are typical of science, though are not restricted to it. Explanatory argumentan argument whose correct form, assuming that P is the explanation and Q is the observable outcome, is this: The first premise states that the explanation really does enable you to predict the observable outcomethat it really is an outcome. But the more moving parts a machine has, the more likely it is that it will break downso a well-designed machine includes no more parts than absolutely required. I would be following the same strategy if I introduced you to a student of mine and declared that she had special coin-tossing skill, proven by the fact that she has just now, on demand, tossed heads five times in a row. In 1695, Edmund Halley began to ponder whether Newtons account of celestial mechanics was correct and, in particular, whether it applied to the motion of comets. Explanation: Astrology is reliable. d. This interpretation of the saying is unfalsifiable and can receive no logical support from the nature of ones experience. People in the South tend to rate the President more favorably than do people in the North Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004. First American psychologist. Psychoanalytic theory focuses on ________ and early childhood experiences. An engaging and more detailed account of this experiment can be found in Keith Arnolds Pascals Great Experiment,. It is conducted to have a better understanding of the existing problem, but will not provide conclusive results. b. punishing all aggressive play Ask whether an explanation for the outcome already exists. For exactly the same reason, we can hardly consider astrology to be supported when someone finds that the days horoscope has some truth in it; horoscopes are worded so vaguely that there are almost always events that can be interpreted as making them true. For both general and singular explanations, ask whether this sort of explanation makes sensethat is, whether there is a satisfactory conceptual framework for it and whether it is more satisfactory than the alternatives. Which of the following psychologists was a behaviorist? We are the only two people in this apartment. Sample exercise. Thirty of the 40 who died were men and, says Grayson, most of the male deaths occurred before that of a single woman. Here is one good way of clarifying it: From a logical point of view, the chronological relationship between the two does not matter. (It is called double blind because neither those receiving the pills nor those administering the study knows which group is getting the real Vitamin C and which is getting the bogus Vitamin C.) By using large groups, the coincidence alternative is ruled out. Draw conclusions and make revisions. unintentional aggression. Do not worry for now whether the observable outcome It includes the presumption of causation. e. Follow up. One emphasizes the power of suggestion as a psychological process; if faith can heal, despair can kill. Hundreds of people gathered for a second night Wednesday to see an image described as the outline of the Virgin Mary on a wall of an empty house in Hanover Township, Pa. Males exhibit higher levels of aggression than females. He was a man with some amount of self-importance and a certain air of command. d. Frustration produces physical but not psychological aggression. In another example, continental drift initially was reasonably rejected as the explanation for the striking biological and geological similarities between continents that are widely separated by oceans because there was no known mechanism for the drift. Be more suspicious of explanatory arguments in which the explanation was invented after the observable outcome was observed. The more surprising the outcome would be, the lower the prior probability and the stronger the logic of the argument. Nearly half the party died before an April rescue, the survivors cannibalizing the dead. By sheer coincidence, a few of these thousands of dreams are going to seem to come true, and these are the ones that will stick most vividly in my memory (remember the vividness shortcut from Chapter 1). Archeologist Donald Grayson of the University of Washington has found some evidence in the Donner Party catastrophe. b. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004 Soles For a scientific explanation to be testable, it must also be ________. But it is highly probable, whether my theory is true or false, that the reviews will be good or bad or somewhere in between. In some explanatory arguments, the explanatory theory is first invented, then the observable outcome is predicted and looked for. Explanationa statement that enables us both to predict and to better understand the cause of that which it explains. P.S. Psychologists scientifically study ________. We make our observations when we can and we fashion our explanations when they occur to us, and the same principles of evaluation apply regardless of which comes first. Freud argued that repression and resistance are two important mechanisms of our minds. d. all of the above If-clause is intended to provide better understanding of then-clause. If an explanation does already exist, then the outcome has a high prior probability and the argument is logically weak. Which of the following describes this pill? After significantly departing from the mean level of competence, we would expect that the next attempt would be closer to the current mean. The argument might now be clarified as follows: Given that the explanation calls for a uniform decrease in air pressure, it would then predict that if samples were taken at all other altitudes on the Puy-de-Dome, they would be plotted on the graph along a line described by the smoothest curve that can be drawn through the points already there, as follows. A. But this explanation has an exceedingly low prior probability. There are two types of hypothesis. A scientific theory is supported by testable and reproducible data. is true. a. assertive behavior. b. . B. When I went back to that house, the door was open and I could hear a loud argument coming from another room, so I sneaked in and quietly retrieved my pipe. Which occurs more frequentlyburglars or butterfingers? While waiting for my clothes to dry, I slipped into a robe hanging on a hook in the bathroom, and I must have thoughtlessly put my pipe into the pocket. Pete McG. Far worse than the plumber explanation from Dear Abby, it requires a long list of independently improbable things all to be truealternative ways, for example of accounting for the following: the vast documentation rescued from the German Archives; the elaborate sealed rooms set up for funneling the prisoners to their deaths; the movement of enormous quantities of asphyxiating Xyklon B gas to the death camps; the photographs of mounds of bodies; the vast body of eyewitness testimony by both victims and their murderers; and the otherwise mysterious disappearance from history of millions of Jews. This is what happened with Torricellis hypothesis. Delayed on the way west in 1846, 87 pioneers were stranded in late October by heavy snows in the Sierra. But where the two species competed for seeds, one evolved a beak suited for the small seeds, while the other developed a beak for the large seeds. All of the above are reasons for stating a null hypothesis. Confirmation biasour natural tendency to look for outcomes that support our preferred explanation rather than those that might also falsify the alternatives. The first premise states that the theory, or the explanation, really does enable you to predict the facts, or the observable outcome. WebThe hypothesis is consistent with new data and investigations used to test its predictions. Describes knowledge that is based on experience and observations that are rational, testable, and repeatable. Admit it. The oracle tended to utter solemn pronouncements of a very unspecific sortfor example, I see grave misfortune in your future. It was almost inevitable that such a vague prediction would come true. Lack suggested that a finch species alone on an island evolved an intermediate beak for eating seeds of various sizes. Singular explanationsthat the butler did it, or that the man was a Marine sergeantare designed to apply to a very specific thing or eventto this particular murder or to that particular mans physical characteristics. sentence with an appropriate personal pronoun. H. Huxley, letter, September 23, 1860. When it did come true, it was often counted as reason to believe that the oracle had special powers. A statement that enables us both to predict and to better understand the cause of that which it explains. Psychoanalytic theory focuses on ________ and early childhood experiences. Could you find out for me which five days that man is on the road? Write an expression for the general or nth term, an,a_{n},an, for the geometric sequence. Explanatory/ Causal /Bivariate Hypothesis. We do know, however, that deception of this sort happensthat there are entertainers who work very hard at producing illusions like this, and they can make a lot of honest money at it. 2) The use and transformation of energy to perform work. If comets were common in December, then the premises of the argument would have still been true, but they would have given us no good reason to believe the conclusion. After a few seconds, I knew it was. Barbecues occur far more frequently than house fires, so they have a much higher prior probability; but when the observable outcomeway too much smokedoes not follow from the barbecue explanation, we are logically forced to the less probable explanation that it is a house fire. It can also be helpful to know that when explanatory arguments occur in ordinary language, the ifthen premise is more often than not implicit (which tends not to be the case with the fallacy of affirming the consequent). Which of the following choices correctly describes a double-blind test? One good way to check for simplicitya way typically more useful with singular than with general explanationsis to ask whether the explanation offers only as many explanatory entities as needed. First: make observations; Last: Interpret data. An experiment that makes it possible to determine decisively between alternative hypotheses. d. fans become more aggressive under the influence of alcohol c. social learning theory As a consequence of organisms' ability to reproduce and of evolutionary change, populations may become better adapted to their environments. we know that, option c. An increase in fam. Suppose on the camping trip your friend wonders why the water boiled so quickly, and you reply, Because we are at a higher altitude. This is not an argument. Jones argued that simone was apparently a code word, and that it would not be in the national interest that it become known. The set of analytical and mathematical tools designed to help researchers gain understanding from the data they gather is called. The group taking vitamin C has substantially fewer colds than the group taking the placebo. Instrumental aggression is aggression occurring. a. Young women purchase fewer meats than women who are 35 years of age or older. This condition is the logical requirement on any inductive argument that its conclusion fit appropriately with the total available evidence. d. as an inverted-U All of these. WebWhich of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? Webe. 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