In the field of personal wealth, this means walking your children past the idling lineup of your neighbors Mercedes SUVs, over the snowy grass and up to the door of the school and being confident that you are doing the right thing. Basic Economics Vijay. Etrade is going to trade bitcoin futures. That, is where were at. (Then Ill get out, right? MMM says: There is no intrinsic value in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin and altcoins consume a ridiculous amount of energy. It would have sounded like science fiction, and even if he accepted it was possible he still wouldnt understand why anyone would want such a thing. That is when we are talking equality and progress for all! Well, SOMEONE has to keep the bankers & wealthy rich, right??? For fun, I try to gauge how bad is the Fear of missing out is and how that corresponds to a peak. Humans are conditioned for shortcuts in all aspects of life. I understand the concept of having an idea, building business around it with angel investors and later going public where you and I can invest but I dont understand investing in something like XRP. Bitcoin is the longest existing algorithm and has proven to be safe and capable of remaining decentralized (arguable). Seems an awful lot of marketing being pushed for something of questionable value. But, these days you shouldnt use resistance heaters except for the lightest heating loads, because they are obsolete. I believe I may be allergic to mercury. I doubt you really believe this is going to overthrow all of our current financial system. So now that youve got an truly immutable public data store, what do you do with it? January 4, 2018, 7:28 am. MissSaraBee Its absolutely astounding how the general (pretty darn) intelligent public cant tell the difference between an real asset vs an investment. I have no issue with the block chain. Since we are still in the opening stages of the Bitcoin phenomenon it is BTCs perceived functionality properties that should drive the current price action, not so much the mania and the speculation aspect. January 3, 2018, 5:30 pm. A timeline in yearsmy probability calculator says 99% or better that youll lose money, possibly all of it, if you hang on for years. Your entire new medium of exchange is part of the black market. Apparently the friend had doubled his money. Please drop the bullying and come back to join the conversation. April 2, 2018, 7:38 am. Gold is relatively inert (wont rust except for very tiny amounts of oxydation), it is relatively easy to verify its authenticity (its malleable, the good ol biting the coin to see if it dents, you can melt it to look for impurities as well as hard to fake the colour with lead based forgeries). A decentralised system where no human has the power to manipulate money supply is the best thing that any society can expect, to get its finances and economy in order. I am beginning to get it Mattheus. MMM says: Cryptocurrencies are useful for anonymity and evading the government which is bad because we need the governemnt and we need to trust each other. I let it sit around 2.5% of my savings (Im still growing my nest egg). Im selling because I agree that cryptocurrencies have entered the bubble phase, but when it comes to theirlong-term viability, you have completely missed the bigger picture. The account is now worth over $500k, but the high was closer to $700k. Also, I wonder the extent of whispering in their ears & kick backs they could/likely do get. Tim Beck Its clear from reading the comments that most people dont understand how this works. Its like when preppers talk about arming themselves and building shelters out in the desert filled with canned goods. Seems to Petes point, theres an awful lot of marketing push behind something that has dubious use cases and limited long term value. their invested dollars add value to a society the moment they are employed.. He appeared on the Kevin Rose podcast as well. I own my currency as it is today (EUR and USD), how come you do not own yours? As a result, changes in perceived value result in big price swings. FullTimeFinance I agree with some parts of this article and this some parts are a bit ridiculous. Broadband. About purse.io: Do you have to pay the transaction fee to deposit the BTC to escrow? For me, its just like watching a show that I dont know the ending of yet. You will not own your money more with virtual currencies. Jul 25, 2021 164 comments The water can be stored behind a dam for weeks, months, sometimes *years* if the dam is big enough. January 2, 2018, 8:01 pm. Calling this a waste of human energy is NUTS. Hmmm..why not pay in bitcoins if it is so superior? Another interesting side-effect of bitcoin mining: big sales of computer graphics cards, and theft of electricity and cloud computer services. Why is the author so angry about this fact? Fiat currency has neither. The web. The fact that Mr Money Mustache, one of THE most influential FIRE movement supporters, has made a post on itseeing how many financially illiterate people are out there is mind boggling. But coincidentally, after I got my computer engineering degree I ended up specializing in security and encryption technologies for most of my career. In this video from Motley Fool Live, recorded on Feb. 23, Adeney joined. If people are creating an bubble out of it, people is stupid, not bitcoin. It has a track record though ill give you that. January 2, 2018, 6:46 pm. I agree Jay. Nathanael The underlying value of stocks are tangible assets and value added production activities. I dont think Bitcoin will be very snuggly. THIS is a form of trust derived worth. So for it to be a global currency taco bell is going to have to start paying kids in btc. Ms. Frugal Asian Finance People then go on to say, If theres even a ONE PERCENT CHANCE that this happens, Bitcoins are severely undervalued and they should really be worth, like, at least a quadrillion dollars each!!. I am laughing my ass out. 1) Adoption curve and network effect, 2) people buying & holding (hodling), 3) people using it to buy stuff or services. This might be normal for an era such as this, where the growth is coming from real tech companies instead of widget makers. Mr. Money Mustache shares his opinion about Bitcoin. Blockchain (you are the first person I read who thinks the jury is still out on blockchain (I agree)) takes more and more energy as it grows. An investment then would not be considered wasteful now. MMM has been writing quality PF content for years. MMM, Internet has pretty much destroyed every industry it has pitted against. For this article, I have set the bar much lower to show you the religious conviction that crypto speculators have. Because when the Northeaster blows through my town and knocks down a power line, I want to pay the 15 year old kid who knocked on my door and shoveled my driveway $30 bucks. Check your funds. And regarding Bitcoin as currency, it is already not usable as that TODAY. That is what people said 1999/2000 for the dotcom bubble. November 20, 2018, 11:56 am. Saving billions from poverty, war, and the enslavement of banks or the lack of any banking is Altruistic. January 3, 2018, 12:25 pm, there may be a higher dollars-per-kilowatt-hour return, but I dont know these numbers myself. No? January 3, 2018, 4:28 pm. Travis, your are right. Bitcoin has very little usage. January 2, 2018, 8:53 pm. Allow it time to grow to say 10 trillion, and then let us debate on stability. That is wrong. Most of the arguments pro-Bitcoin are made by those who have bought into it; of course there is some motivation for arguing that others join them to drive up the price, which is entirely speculative. I think I found the mistake in your reasoning. But instead of seeing how ridiculous this is, even morepeople start piling in and bidding up every new variety of pills (cryptocurrency), over and over and on and on, until they are some of the most valuable things on the planet. Scott Nicholson When the internet / electric / grid is down, I cant pay him via my iphone and at the moment, the kid wants cash. Cancer-Away, CancerBgone, CancEthereum, and any other number of competitors would spring up. More than triple the speed of Visa/MC. The Vigilante Fiat currencies my friend is working overtime for its own demise. Sure, China is a renewables leader but it has limits. Whether you should get out is a difficult question. No guarantees that if bitcoin drops that it will ever come back. Oh my gosh, get out! So, I harvest other peoples speculation and I dont lose anything, as I have already harvested more than what I put in. There is no wealth and no trade without these two things, so you might as well go all-in and trust people. To keep things non-promotional, please use a real name or nickname(not Blogger @ My Blog Name). Talk of being blissfully ignorant! Places like Singapore, Estonia, Switzerland appear to already working on converting their systems to digital cash. Unfortunately for most people that think they are missing out on everything, they are being lead to Coinbase and only buying the cheapest tokens available, namely Litecoin because Ethereum and Bitcoin have gotten so expensive. i could talk for hours on the subject but Bitcoin is here to stay as it has already become central to a growing number of economies. I dont know how many of you can even get to understand what this is but hopefully you understand something from the URL I share below of how mining is done, and why this is not some idiotic electricity consuming joke! There are dozens more data points just like these. MentalArson OK Vijay but then why do you and others get so angry when some of us say we dont want to invest in it? So what Im saying isdont dismiss it based on where you see todays generation using todays rudimentary blockchain with todays technology and society. Im not sure why the author is so angry at people who speculate. This volatility thing that seems to be biting you folks is because Bitcoin is at 200 Billion capitalisation today. However, in 2004 when Facebook was being launched it was looked at as a funny little friend site. But not possible with Bitcoin transaction costs for BTC are up in the integer $ range and can take hours. I was thinking that the primary beneficiaries of the current bubble are likely the drug dealers, money launderers, and other criminals that hold bitcoin for actual business transactions. November 20, 2018, 9:31 am, rollie fingers Or when I have to go to the grocery store to buy milk and theres the sign that says NO POWER, CASH ONLY and my toddler is crying for milk, Im going to pay them in cash. Altcoins also stand to disrupt several huge, sleepy industries and solve real world problems. Do I still get the full bag or just a portion of your pinky fingers latest clipping? On the other hand, if youre cool with allowing remote-controlled robots to kill 3rd world women and children in your name, then keep using only US Dollars. Does that mean investing in Berkshire Hathaway is speculating? We? Having interest rates all the way down to near 0% without a good exit plan should give you some pause how much you want to trust these people. Like they say, speculation is as old as the hills. Also appreciate fungibility. Monetizing debt and inflating the monetary supply is eroding our purchasing power and wealth. January 2, 2018, 5:53 pm, Dear Mr. Mustache, I am so sorry you had to write this at all. How much do you have invested in BTC? . They have been making a killing. Blockchain is simply a nifty software invention (which is open-source and free for anyone to use), whereas bitcoin is just one well-known way to use it. E.g. Bingo, so far you are the only one that stated the true value of any nation backed currency, notably the USD. ), bastringue Do you really see that happening? It remains to be seen. I buy bitcoin with the expectation that bitcoin will solve the problems it currently faces and become more widely accepted thus increasing demand driving up the price. The most useful comments are those written with the goal of learning from or helping out other readers after reading the whole article and all the earlier comments. Me personally, Im betting on the buck. Slaves to banks and few elites? Plus, it costs something like $20 per transaction. Google, Amazon and Facebook came out of it. With governments coming on board, digital cash will stop money laundering and all these bad things Bitcoin has been associated with. It's the ultimate win/win because you just set it and forget it. Networking. The timestamp on these comments is pretty helpful to see who was right! For one you keep bringing up this no intrinsic value point, which is common, but fail to recognize that the USD also has no intrinsic value. I could only shake my head. If you are disgusted with the mining costs of Bitcoin you should be but the fact remains new inventions like RaiBlocks has made cryptocurrency frictionless and without mining or fees with transactions at over 7,000 per second. On the other hand, paying a ridiculously high speculative price based only on what others *might* be willing to pay in the futurebased on little historical or reasonable evidencecertainly is insane. Good comments Jon. Read through this article for the contrarian view of things: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4134745-bitcoins-path-1-million-bubble-bursting-anytime-soon, Mr. Money Mustache Read Warren Buffets books. The cost savings from implementing everything on immutable ledgers has significant cost savings and automation of processes which is why there is so much speculation. Because it is. Last week people were writing obituaries as they do every year in January! Even in a police state like China their actions have failed! Subsequently, some 70 years later, Im still using that toilet paper to finance my retirement, buy cars, houses and all sorts of things? Dont know if youve seen JP Searss satire of Bitcoin but I think you might appreciate it. Youre playing a psychological, win-lose battle against other humans with money as the only objective. The question is if one is worth $15k? Most people understand nothing apart from my friend bought some BTC for $5k last month and now theyre worth $20k. The ones who own the farms you mean? People will overbuy it in a frenzy and oversell it when fear sets in. Very interesting. It grew to $240k. For me, the answer is wealth rule #1 from MMM: You Dont Try to Gamble Your Way to Wealth, http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2013/09/20/wealth-advice-that-should-be-obvious/. There is no reliable way to track or trace paper. Youll note that without prejudice and emotion, he describes the actualuses of the technology, without getting intohow we should all place uninformed bets on its future value. As a result, the benefits of human progress are not reflected in our moneys purchasing power. After all, you could make the same argument about Mr. Money Mustache's fingernail clippings: they may have no intrinsic value, but at least they are in limited supply so let's use them as the new world currency! Second: Human nature actually tolerates a *lot* of corruption in exchange to stability, so I dont think well be switching over to this science fair project any time soon. Bitcoins are all the same, they are not numbered, they dont rot and dont have a shelf life. This is not going to happen. Just the same with crypto-currencies today. The need for a cryptocurrency is very real. Soon, they will be on the brink of bankruptcy and you will be able to purchase all of their stuff at a discount. One book that I found very useful in understanding the greed-fear cycle (and Central Banking and the Federal Reserve system to boot) is the 2001 classic Towards Rational Exuberance by Mark Smith. What value is there? January 3, 2018, 1:08 pm. Ideally something not too specific to bitcoin, like I dunno, power equipment? Market prices are not set by consensus. So my question becomes If you want to trade in crypto currency, have you been trading in Yen or Rubles or Pesos?. If you could have somehow monetised the Internet in 1992 and sold it, imagine how rich you would be right now? Hardware. In a world of human trust, putting the wisest and most respected people in a position of Adult Supervision is a useful tactic. This is yet another extreme example. but remember short positions have a possible infinite downside while buying the asset has a possible infinite up side, If you do this youre still speculating on a market that cant be understood right now. Couldnt have said it any better myself. In short this is nothing more than trust. It has now grown quite a bit, of course. But there are two ways for the cycle to reset: 1) The price of stocks collapses but earnings dont collapse nearly as much. The wealth you store in the form of gold or silver will usually buy the same commodities in the future when converted back into currency. You may be smart enough to recognize why one currency is going up and another isnt and to not go all-in on something. Shorting bitcoin would just be speculation in the opposite direction. If you introduced a brand new commodity to the world, would you expect the price to be stable? What is stupid is dogmas and cults lead by undocumented know-it-all type of guys. Or the cars people use to haul that stuff then. I did Control F, and verified that MMM never used the word Ponzi or Pyramid, and in fact Vijay, you were the first person to bring up the Ponzi Scheme topic, and then you linked some article (which I did not care to read). Why not one of the other 1500 cryptocurrencies? Adney's first tip is to change how you look at the prices of what you buy. Bitmains S9 efficiency is at ~0.1 J/GHs. January 3, 2018, 8:50 pm. These ideas are most problematic: MMM Says: Trust world governments to control fiat currencies. A currency that unstable cant be realistically used for transactions, even if you forget about its other limitations. However, investing in Bitcoin now seems more along the lines of investing in a BBS in the early 90s. It all depends on how much personal enjoyment they get compared to the cost to own them. Shut up, just send me $100 via PayPal and Ill send you a bag of my fingernail clippings. Returns are down and all that cash needs to go somewhere. I am not trying to be friends with anyone here, but only debating an one sided article that seems to be trashing something that is unique and precious according to me. Bitcoin/Ethereum mixers. Although I do get where MMM is trying put an emphasis on the difference in investing and speculation. Bitcoin isnt that though. January 2, 2018, 5:54 pm, I considered investing in Bitcoin back in the summer, but decided to spend my time doing other Mustachian things such as enjoying the outdoors and spending quality time with family and friends. Peopleve been lusting after gold (god knows why) for millennia because it clearly arouses something inside them. But, dont you initially invest money into Bitcoin thru your bank? The happiness of society is made of the happiness of individuals and nothing else. Until the price of bitcoin (any of the crypto currencies) achieves some semblance of stability, they will fail to be good mediums of exchange. So I did learn a bit about locking and unlocking information, hacking, and ensuring that independent brains (whether they are two adjacent CPUs on a circuit board or two companies negotiating across the Pacific) can trust each other and coordinate their actions in lockstep. This is to be expected for a revolutionary new technology. Transactions takes as long as for banks (and soon banks will do trasnfers in seconds too, the real life tests have already started) and cost MORE. But yes, I would not invest in crypto currency. The Ramsey Show is a podcast by Dave Ramsey, a financial guru and bestselling author. Fair comparison? His main investing motivation because he feels like hes late to the game and wants the earnings he could have had. Then in November I sold it and bought GBTC, which is a OTC fund holding bitcoins. Use this 500K wisely and make our planet better! Speculating on bitcoin for this reason only really works so long as there is some new greater fool who joins in on the speculation after you have bought. Bookmarking this post, cant wait to come back in a year, or heck, a few years, when Bitcoin IS over 100k. Not likely, bitcoin mining farms are in China because of the cheaper energy costs. El Penguin So you are further wagering that Bitcoin will literally supplant the USD as the world medium of financial exchange, and frankly, that is kinda bonkers. Thanks for your perspective on an interesting topic. Rule of thumb is never put everything in one basket. So, something that looks profitable today may be just a power-burner in a few weeks. Speculation is very useful and I dont think anyone is going off on peoples choice to speculate, but people are very bad at properly evaluating risk. Vivek Prasannan I am smiling because Im content to let others gamble. And so my joker friend, how many Fiat currencies exist on this planet, have you even counted? Its a little like taking out the garbage. Id like to address each. Personally I fail to see the reference between Failhypecoins and retails challenges with shopping online. BTC wont be the winner but with over 1300 coins the winner has likely been created. You could grow more bulbs indefinitely. Only the most weak and fearful people will allow themselves to be stolen from for the sake of mythical national security that comes from trillions of dollars of military spending. You are as usual missing the point and are behind trivia! Why should it not be? Amazing. also look at russian, venezuala and Argentina for more proof of bitcoin. All technology goes through a bit of a curve where new technologies have multiple competitors and slowly they formulate around standards and a smaller core group of players. Look at all the nations that proposed a EUR based oil exchange, all overthrown (no, not saying those were shining examples of humanity but the prioritization is simply correlated enough). January 3, 2018, 4:51 pm. Government-issued currencies have value because they represent human trust and cooperation. I believe this is currently the second longest expansion in US history. to convince them myself. The potential upside outweighs the risk of the initial cost. Bond *prices* are higher than ever today, which is the reciprocal of them having a high yield. February 13, 2018, 5:35 pm. Money only has value if it is stable and trusted. People are likely to disagree on whether this is a good thing depending on their worldview. Even if you are the only one in the room willing to do it. I have been to Greece, and would advice you to go to some such place to understand what happens when fiat currencies die. These days, stocks are regulated by the SEC, precisely because in the olden days, there were many, many stocks issued that were much likeBitcoin. Vijay, I think you should sell every non-bitcoin asset you own, borrow as much money as you possibly can, and buy as many bitcoins as possible. For a long answer you need to understand the technicalities of it which I am not going to educate you on! Bankruptcy and you will not own yours and any other number of would... Now worth over $ 500k, but the high was closer to 700k. 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